The MVP Dilemma: Defining ‘Value’ and Evaluating the Top 2025 PLL MVP Candidates

The 2025 Premier Lacrosse League MVP race took an intriguing turn following Week 8, with the 2025 PLL MVP odds on bet365 and FanDuel reopening with someone other than Michael Sowers favored for the first time since June 5. Following a seven-point performance against the California Redwoods, Connor Shellenberger opened as the new favorite to win the award on bet365 and FanDuel with odds as low as +150 at the time. Meanwhile, Michael Sowers was sitting at +250 on FanDuel and +275 on bet365. A day later, DraftKings reopened their odds with Sowers still listed as the favorite at +150 and Shellenberger at +225.

The sportsbooks have since adjusted to be a bit more in line with each other, with Sowers as long as +250 on bet365 and FanDuel going as far as making Shellenberger and Sowers now co-favorites at +200 earlier today before shifting more in line with DraftKings and making Sowers the favorite again at +165.

Ultimately, the sportsbooks don’t know what to make of the 2025 PLL MVP race. Both Sowers and Shellenbeger are tied with 32 points and their goals and assists totals are nearly identical. Yet, I’m here to break down both’s MVP candidacy and tell you why I don’t think it’s actually that close….

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THE MVP DILEMMA

The “Most Valuable Player” dilemma is prevalent in every sport and has been for a long time. If the award was “Most Outstanding Player,” then it would be much easier to award it to players based on just their on-field accomplishments and their stats would have stronger meaning. Yet, there’d also be far less debate, nuance and fun discussions.

Instead, the age-old debate is centered around “value” and how much a given player brings to his team. On-field performance, team success and stats are all still considered, but they’re a part of a bigger picture and question shifts from “Who is the best player?” to “Which player is most valuable to their team?”

We saw this scenario play out just last season in the NFL. Lamar Jackson finished the regular season with 41 touchdowns and 4 interceptions one of the greatest—one of the greatest seasons by a quarterback of all time that earned him first-team all-pro honors. Yet, voters decided to award Josh Allen the MVP for his season (which was also very impressive despite not being as historic) because they viewed him as being more valuable to his team. Jackson still had a legitimate case for the award (and voter fatigue could have also played a factor), but in the end, Allen was deemed “most valuable.”

We saw a very similar scenario play out in the National Lacrosse League, and I compared Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen’s MVP candidacy to Dhane Smith and Connor Fields. While it wasn’t a perfect analogy, the similarities were there. Dhane Smith had statistically one of the best seasons in NLL history, but was already a two-time MVP and played with another MVP in Josh Byrne. Meanwhile, Connor Fields had a phenomenal season, even if it wasn’t as statistically impressive as Smith’s, and the argument for him was that Rochester would be much worse without him than Buffalo would have been without Smith.

Both were deserving in their own way, but Connor Fields eventually took home the award. The PLL’s current MVP race is much more crowded from a finalist standpoint, but—in my opinion—much more clear-cut in terms of who should be favored with just three weeks left in the season. Let me explain…

EVALUATING THE 2025 PLL MVP CANDIDATES

As I discussed in detail last week, I think the 2025 PLL MVP award is Sowers’ to lose. He certainly hasn’t run away with it like Jeff Teat did last season, but no other player has meant more to his team this season than him and his basic stats currently rank at the top.

Yet, if you go beyond the surface, Sowers’ 2025 season is even more impressive. Sowers is currently the only player with a minimum of 200 touches that is both scoring and assisting on more than 5.65% of his touches. 13.91% of Sowers’ touches are leading to points—an unprecedented rate. Sowers is also elevating the players around him with incredible efficiency. Sowers’ teammates are scoring on nearly 40% of his feeds.

Let’s also consider Sowers’ teammates. Jake Taylor has been a strong off-ball addition to this offense, Kieran McArdle has played at an MVP-level in the past and Thomas McConvey is having a breakout field lacrosse season. Yet, all are made better by the presence of Sowers and the Waterdogs’ loss to Maryland this past weekend actually strengthened Sowers’ case in my mind. Not only did Sowers have four of Philly’s seven goals, he also generated a lot more chances as a scorer that were stopped by Emmet Carroll. His value was apparent, even if it ended in a losing effort. The Waterdogs offense is ultra-reliant on Michael Sowers. If the season ended today, Sowers would easily be the MVP in my opinion.

Yet, there are still three weeks left in the regular season, including a pivotal matchup between New York and Philadelphia in the final week of the season. If we project how Sowers might do in his final three games compared to Shellenberger, I still think Sowers has the edge. The Waterdogs’ remaining schedule consists of games against Carolina, Boston and New York, while Atlas will face Maryland and Denver before going head-to-head with Philly. Sowers has had his best games against Boston and Carolina, while strong defensively, is a good matchup in my opinion, given their tendency to trust their matchups. Sowers should have plenty of opportunities to score and it will come down to whether Riorden is able to stop him or not.

Meanwhile, a healthy Shellenberger is having an extremely strong season that rivals Sowers in terms of production, but is more a product of the offense he is a part of. As I laid out last week, Jeff Teat and Liam Entenmann have also been extremely important to New York’s success this season. Don’t get me wrong, Shellenberger’s 6.45% assist per tocuh rate is still impressive and he, like Sowers, has demonstrated the ability to excel as a feeder and scorer. Yet, he’s not blowing Sowers out of the water in any statistical category and has a stronger supporting cast, in my opinion.

We’ll start with Jeff Teat, who ran away with the MVP last year and is consistently an MVP finalist, no matter which pro lacrosse league he’s playing in. Shellenberger benefits from not being the guy that opposing defenses need to limit. While defenses try (and mostly fail) to stop Teat, Shellenberger’s playmaking ability has been on full display and, to his credit, he’s taken advantage of teams treating him like the #2 option.

Then there’s Trevor Baptiste, another former MVP who is dominating the faceoff stripe and giving Shelly and Co. substantially more chances on offense. Finally, Liam Entenmann has been one of the most impactful players on New York, keeping them in games when the offense was struggling and helping to fend off opposing offenses when shootouts have occurred. Sowers’ supporting cast is solid, but it pales in comparison to Shellenberger’s.

The other thing to consider is past MVP winners. If we go back to 2023, we saw a similar situation play out in the MVP race. Marcus Holman finished with a league-high 44 points—seven more than the eventual MVP winner Tom Schreiber. Yet, similar to how Shellenberger had Teat, Holman had Asher Nolting. Nolting finished three points behind Holman and both players’ outstanding seasons hurt their overall case for “most valuable.”

I don’t want this to sound like I’m a Shellenberger detractor. (I actually made the case for him to be selected first overall in the 2024 PLL Draft.) Yet, if we play the game where we take MVP candidates out of their current offense and discuss how those offenses might fare without them, it’s fairly clear Sowers is more valuable.

PLL MVP PREDICTIONS

So, after laying out the case for Sowers, let’s address why there is such a disparity in the current MVP odds market. The simplest and likely biggest reason the sportsbooks made Shellenberger and Sowers’ odds so close is that they currently have the same point total. I have no doubt that if Sowers had just one more point than Shelly after this past week, he would have remained the clear favorite on each sportsbook. Yet, he and Shellenberger are statistically neck and neck. These sportsbooks aren’t watching the games like we are; they’re setting odds based on simple factors and trying to anticipate what bettors might do. They’re trying to protect themselves from bettors who might overreact to Shellenberger tying Sowers in points and wanting to bet accordingly.

The smart sportsbooks are also good at correcting when they’ve made a mistake. That’s exactly what FanDuel did when they shortened Sowers’ odds in reaction to DraftKings keeping him as the favorite. Then they adjusted even further soon after I bet and logged my second bet on Sowers to win MVP in the Action app and sent it out to the nearly thousand people who follow me.

Yet, the sportsbooks can adjust only so much without opening themselves up to further liability, and the current market is a great opportunity to bet Sowers, in my opinion. You can still bet Michael Sowers to win 2025 PLL MVP at +250 on bet365 and I think he’s still a good bet at anything plus money if you haven’t already bet him. If you bet him to win MVP at +1500 when I gave it out back in June, then there’s no harm in staying away, but I feel strongly enough about his candidacy that I personally re-bet him myself.

Is the MVP race already over? Hardly. Yet, in my opinion, Sowers not only has the best chance to take home the award, he has far and away the best case of any of the players at the top of the odds board based on both production and impact on his team.

And when the odds don’t reflect a disparity like I discussed above, we call that “value.”