2026 NLL Finals Dark Horse Candidate to Bet Now
Now, let’s look at some potential playoff teams that I think can make an NLL Finals run.
A team I expect to make it back to the playoffs is the Rochester Knighthawks. Rochester re-signed the majority of their core players, traded for Zed Williams this summer, and recently signed Nathan Grenon and Jeremy Thompson. Now, it’s not yet known if Williams (who is recovering from an Achilles injury earlier this year) will be ready to start the season, but he did warm up with the team ahead of Rochester’s first preseason game so he appears close to full health.
Regardless, this Rochester roster, led by 2025 NLL MVP Connor Fields, is ready to contend even without Williams. Most sportsbooks are offering odds of +900, which feels about right to me right now. However, if you have access to ESPN Bet (soon to be TheScore Bet in the U.S. next month), then I think the Rochester Knighthawks at +1100 are worth a small bet. Their opening schedule includes facing the Philadelphia Wings in two of their first three games, so their odds could drop a little in the first few weeks, but I ultimately don’t expect any drastic odds movement to occur.
The San Diego Seals’ current odds also feel about right, if not even a little too short. San Diego didn’t do much to strengthen its roster, trading Rob Hellyer to Ottawa and losing Ryan Benesch in free agency, while trading for Connor Robinson and signing Corey Small. These moves feel more like an attempt to maintain production rather than the typical “all in” strategy San Diego has attempted in years past. Still, the young stable of players that the Seals signed is at least intriguing.
Pat Kavanagh returns after playing one game for San Diego last season, and his brother Chris Kavanagh has also signed with the team. The Seals also added some young talent on transition and defense in rookies Ari Steenhuis and Marquez White. Steenhuis is the son of long-time Buffalo Bandits transition player Mark Steenhuis and White is a California native with both pro experience in the PLL and box experience in the National Collegiate Box Series. Americans Aidan Carroll and TJ Malone, both coming off successful pro field lacrosse seasons, also signed entry-level contracts, though we’ll have to see how long it takes them to eventually make their NLL debut. The Seals should still be competitive and in the playoff hunt, but we will need to wait and see if this young squad can have a 2023-24 FireWolves type of season or needs some more time to develop.
As for the other two 2025 playoff teams, I’d be surprised if both the Calgary Roughnecks and Georgia Swarm make it back to the playoffs this season after losing some key players this offseason. Both teams are well-coached and still have plenty of talent on their roster, but this will likely be a transition year with growing pains for both franchises. This opens up some opportunities for some other teams down the board to make a run this season.
I expect the Toronto Rock to bounce back this season, given the return of Nick Rose and the addition of rookies CJ Kirst, Owen Hiltz and Sam English. Latrell Harris also appears fully healthy heading into this season. I jumped on Toronto at +1100 in October, but their odds are now more in line with what I expect. They have enough talent to get back to the playoffs, but are also still very young like San Diego, and will be without both Corey Small and likely Tom Schreiber this season. At their current odds, they’re in the “wait and see” group along with the Ottawa Black Bears and Colorado Mammoth.
This brings me to one team that I think is flying way under the radar: the Oshawa FireWolves at +1600 (bet365/BetRivers/DraftKings).
The FireWolves arguably had the worst injury luck last season and were without three of their best defenders (John Wagner, Jackson Nishimura and Colton Watkinson) at varying times throughout the season (and sometimes all at once.) 2020 NLL goaltender of the year Doug Jamieson could only do so much to keep the FireWolves competitive with that depleted defense, but for most of the year, they still were playing teams tight! We could talk all day about their numerous fourth-quarter collapses last year, but I’d rather take the “glass half full” approach. The FireWolves played in nine games that were decided by two goals or fewer last year, losing five of them. And yet, they still finished just two wins out of a playoff spot and ended the season as winners of five of their last eight games, including an overtime victory over the now three-time defending champion Buffalo Bandits.
Many members of their young core that made an NLL Finals run just 17 months ago are returning, and 2025 NLL rookie of the year Dyson Williams enters with even higher expectations. The FireWolves also acquired forward Kyle Jackson late last season, traded for forward Taggart Clark this summer, and signed four-time defensive player of the year Kyle Rubsich in free agency. Despite being 37 years old, Rubsich remains a reliable defender and is another veteran with championship experience. Oshawa is a team I expect to bounce back and be in playoff contention again come May. At their current odds, they’re a great dark horse to get a position on before the season starts.
Picks: Rochester Knighthawks to win the 2026 NLL Championship (+1100), Oshawa FireWolves to win the 2026 NLL Championship (+1600)
Finally, let’s take a look at my favorite “longshot” to win the 2026 NLL Championship…
