Look for Offensive Efficiency Paired with Possession Advantages
Another aspect of lacrosse that makes it unique is the ability for teams to acquire a disproportionate amount of possessions. While possessions don’t necessarily translate to goals, a team can gain a sizable advantage through extra possessions when paired with an efficient offense.
Unlike basketball, possessions don’t alternate after a team scores in college lacrosse, the NLL and PLL. Instead, play resumes with a faceoff at the middle of the field, similar to hockey. Unlike hockey however, it is easy for teams to gain a substantial edge at the faceoff, with some of the best faceoff specialists regularly finishing a season above 65%.
This is most noticeable in NCAA men’s lacrosse and to some extent the PLL, where dominant faceoff specialists can significantly impact the outcome of a game. Yet, as important as a possession advantage is, it is still not directly correlated with team success if not paired with an efficient offense.
For example, the most efficient offense in the PLL in 2021 was the Archers, but their faceoff percentage was tied for second-to-last with a 44% team faceoff percentage. Likewise, the 2020 Waterdogs finished with the third-highest faceoff percentage at 56%, but ranked last in offensive efficiency. Neither team advanced past the first round of the postseason.
A team that did combine a successful faceoff percentage (70%) and efficient offense (first in the league) was the 2020 Whipsnakes. Not only did they go undefeated and win the 2020 PLL Championship, they also finished with a +31 score differential.
Bottom line, a high faceoff percentage alone is not a great indicator of overall team success, but when paired with an efficient offense that is matched up against an inefficient defense, it can create a favorable mismatch that bettors can exploit.
As for the NLL, while faceoff specialists are becoming more prevalent in box lacrosse, the greater number of possessions in the NLL greatly reduce a top faceoff specialist’s impact and is currently not an indicator of success when it comes to the final score, even when paired with an efficient offense. Thus, bettors should avoid using faceoff percentage when handicapping NLL games for the time being.
