The National Lacrosse League returns this weekend with a five-game slate to open the 2024-25 NLL Season. Let’s take a look at my three best bets for NLL Faceoff Weekend.
Toronto Rock at Ottawa Black Bears
| Toronto Moneyline/Spread | -165 / -1.5 |
| Ottawa Moneyline/Spread | +135 / +1.5 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN |
Odds via bet365
The newly-relocated Ottawa Black Bears host the Toronto Rock on Friday night. Toronto is a 1.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks and the total sits at 22.5.
When these teams faced each other twice last season, Toronto handed the team formerly known as the New York Riptide six-goal losses in each of their meetings. Despite another premature exit in the postseason, this Toronto team, which went a league-best 15-3 last season, returns largely the same roster as last year. While Ottawa certainly upgraded in net by trading for former Wings goaltender Zach Higgins, I’m not convinced that the Ottawa defense in front of him will be all that better than the Philadelphia one he was a part of last year.
Higgins led the league in saves last season, but that was largely a product of the amount of shots he saw in Philly. His 12.5 goals against average was the worst among true starters behind only Cam Dunkerly—Higgins’ new team’s former starter and now current backup goalie.
Ultimately, I expect this Tom Schreiber-led Toronto offense to have a ton of success against Ottawa’s defense.
While Ottawa’s offense was their biggest bright spot during the 2023-24 NLL season, I do think that Toronto’s defense will keep Jeff Teat and company in check. Led by 2024 NLL goaltender of the year Nick Rose, Toronto’s defense will have the majority of its starters back and even adds 2023 NLL Defensive Player of the Year Latrell Harris, who returns to the floor after suffering an ACL injury last summer.
I currently have the Rock at a 64.64% expected win percentage for this matchup and think they’ll win by margin on Friday night. Expect Toronto to take care of business on the road and bet them to cover the 1.5-point spread at -115 on bet365.
Pick: Toronto Rock -1.5
Las Vegas Desert Dogs at Rochester Knighthawks
| Las Vegas Moneyline/Spread | +180 / +2.5 |
| Rochester Moneyline/Spread | -220 / -2.5 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs and Rochester Knighthawks meet on Saturday night with Rochester as big as a 2.5-point favorite on Caesars Sportsbook. The total ranges between 22.5 and 23.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Given the firepower on both offenses and questions surrounding both defenses, I recommend betting this game to go over 22.5 at -120 on Caesars.
Led by MVP candidate Connor Fields, the Rochester Knighthawks had one of the best offenses last season. However, their defense struggled mightly without starter Rylan Hartley and the result was many high-scoring games featuring Rochester. Games featuring the Knighthawks averaged more than 24 goals per game and 10 of 19 went over the 22.5 mark.
To combat last season’s defensive woes, Rochester acquired Chad Tutton, Brandon Slade, Josh Medieros and Ian Llord..
I love the defensive additions that Rochester made in the offseason and it’s why I recommended betting their championship odds earlier this week. Yet, I think it could take a couple games for them to fully mesh and the bounceback from last year’s worst defense won’t necessarily happen overnight (though Hartley’s presence back in net will certainly expedite the timeline.)
As for Las Vegas, their defense last year was very inconsistent and they traded away top defender John Wagner towards the end of the season. Landon Kells will look to prove he still deserves to be a starter, but won’t have a whole lot of help in front of him. The Desert Dogs’ biggest acquisitions this offseason were on the offensive side, adding Jonathan Donville, Dan Taylor, Dylan Kinnear, Kyle Killen and Adam Poitras.
While I don’t have super high expectations for this Las Vegas team, their offense projects to be much better even after losing Rob Hellyer in free agency.
Bet on both offenses to show up and push this total over 22.5
While I’m not seeing any value on the spread or moneyline, bet365 recently joined FanDuel in offering playoffs odds. Most of bet365’s are close to FanDuel’s but one outlier is Las Vegas is just -135 to miss the playoffs. The disparity is so big that you could bet on both Las Vegas to miss at -135 on bet365 and make at +215 on FanDuel and walk away with a modest profit.
That said, I’d rather bank on the Desert Dogs failing to make the postseason and recommend betting 2.7 units on them to miss at -135 on bet365. There are still far too many questions on the defensive end for this team to take a significant leap this season.
Picks: Over 22.5, Las Vegas to Miss Playoffs (-160 or better)
Saskatchewan Rush at Albany FireWolves
| Saskatchewan Moneyline/Spread | +155 / +1.5 |
| Albany Moneyline/Spread | -190 / -1.5 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
My final pick comes in the Saskatchewan Rush-Albany FireWolves bout on Saturday night. Albany is favored by 1.5 points and is a fairly big favorite on the moneyline. Yet, I think there is value in backing the underdog Rush.
I don’t think Albany will take a step back after making it to the NLL Finals with a young, talented roster, but Saskatchewan could have a similar trajectory as them after injecting some youth of their own.
I touched on why I’m bullish on Saskatchewan this season in my futures article and I expect them to build on what was an underrated season. Despite missing the playoffs at 8-10, the Rush had a +7 goal differential, which was best among non-playoff teams and even better than some teams that made the postseason. In fact, they nearly beat Albany last season, falling to the FireWolves in overtime on New Year’s Eve.
To build upon their moderate success, they added rookies Brock Haley and Levi Anderson, acquired Austin Shanks in free agency, and welcomed back defender Matt Hossack via the Panther City dispersal draft. The Rush have the pieces to hang with the top teams and I expect them to keep it close with Albany to potentially even win outright.
This number is just too long for Saskatchewan. Bet a unit on the Rush at +1.5 (+105 on Caesars) and a half unit on the moneyline (+155 on Caesars).
Picks: Saskatchewan Rush +1.5 & ML
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