We get more National Lacrosse League action on Saturday night, with a rematch from last week and a few teams playing their second game of the weekend. We went 3-2 for +1.6 units on Friday, so let’s keep the momentum going this weekend with more NLL Week 12 bets.
Note: The odds presented below are those at the time when Hutton sends his picks out to DubClub subscribers and are subject to change. Subscribe to Hutton Jackson’s lacrosse picks on DubClub so you never miss out on the best odds for these picks. As soon as Hutton places a bet, you’ll immediately get a notification with both the pick and brief analysis. Picks are sent out at least 20 minutes in advance of articles published on Bet On Lacrosse.
Philadelphia Wings at Halifax Thunderbirds
 Philadelphia Moneyline/Spread | +105 / +1.5 |
 Halifax Moneyline/Spread | -135 / -1.5 |
| Total | 27.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN+ |
Odds via bet365
The Halifax Thunderbirds and Philadelphia Wings battle for the second straight time in a week and while we (unsuccessfully) bet an over last week, we’re taking an under this time around. Last week, these high-powered offenses combined for just 24 points and stayed under 25.5. Yet, sportsbooks offered 27.5 for the rematch and bet365 currently has that line still up. This is currently the highest pregame NLL total we’ve ever tracked at Bet On Lacrosse.
If you subscribe to my DubClub, you may have already bet Under 27.5, but I’m here to explain why you should if you haven’t already.
Despite both these offenses being very efficient and defenses being inefficient to this point, both defenses played very well last week and the goalies stopped most fo what got past them. As we expected, there were still a lot of goals scored in transition, but these defenses mostly prevailed in settle sets.
This being a consecutive matchup also plays a factor, since defenses historically do better in the second game of a back-to-back. If we look at the last nine instances of a team playing the same team twice within consecutive weeks (or merely a day in the case of last season’s games featuring the Saskatchewan Rush and Calgary Roughnecks), an interesting trend emerges.
The second game of back-to-back matchups has been lower-scoring in eight of those nine instances and the average total has been 5.3 goals lower than the first matchup. Ultimately, these consecutive matchups tend to play into the hand of the defenses and I think we’ll see this game stay under a historically high total on Saturday. Bet Under 27.5 at -115 on bet365.
Pick: Under 27.5
Rochester Knighthawks at Saskatchewan Rush
 Rochester Moneyline/Spread | +128 / +1.5 |
 Saskatchewan Moneyline/Spread | -158 / -1.5 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
The Rush travel back to Saskatchewan to play the Rochester Knighthawks less than 24 hours after their win in Calgary last night. While I continue to be bullish on the Rush and even bet them to win and cover last night, this is a tough spot against a surging Rochester team.
The Knighthawks finally got a much-needed bye following a big win over the Philadelphia Wings. Starting goalie Rylan Hartley returned to the lineup and appeared fully healthy. He’ll be key in stopping a surging Saskatchewan offense that just played a tough game against Calgary.
The rest advantage has been substantial during the past few seasons, with the team that’s not playing their second game of the weekend having a lot of success. The Knighthawks offense can keep pace with the Rush and should have the benefit of extra preparation and fresh legs. I expect them to cover and potentially win outright on Saturday night. I’d make them only slight underdogs in a normal situation and think the rest advantage gives them an edge. Bet a half unit on both Knighthawks +1.5 at -110 and Rochester moneyline at +128 on FanDuel.
Picks: Rochester Knighthawks +1.5 (0.5 unit) & ML (0.5 unit)
Subscribe to Hutton Jackson’s lacrosse picks on DubClub so you never miss out on the best odds for these picks. As soon as Hutton places a bet, you’ll immediately get a notification with both the pick and brief analysis!
