5. Colorado Mammoth (2-0)
Power Rating: 0.0798
Current Win Total Projection: 10.68
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +15.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 3rd
Last Week’s Ranking: 6th
Colorado is now just three wins away from already matching their 2023-24 season total. While Colorado’s wins over Vancouver and Las Vegas aren’t earth-shattering, they have the recipe to be a very good team this year. Dillon Ward is back to MVP form, Ryan Lee appears fully healthy and had a huge impact in his second game back from injury and the team features balance on the offensive and defensive end. While a late surge of goals makes their win over Las Vegas more impressive than it probably was, this team should be favored in more games than not this season based on what we’ve seen through two weeks. A favorable schedule provides a great opportunity for another playoff run, so make sure to bet Colorado at +2000 on BetMGM or Bet Rivers while you still can.
6. Georgia Swarm (1-0)
Power Rating: 0.0267
Current Win Total Projection: 9.79
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +5.3
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 6th
Last Week’s Ranking: 7th
Georgia pulled off a big win over San Diego to start a gauntlet of the first few weeks of the season for the Swarm. Georgia is a dark horse for a championship run, but they don’t have much betting value in the futures market right now given their opening schedule and the way they’re being priced game-by-game. Georgia is good team, but we’ll need to be patient to find great spots to back them.
7. Ottawa Black Bears (1-0)
Power Rating: -0.0287
Current Win Total Projection: 9.32
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -5.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 7th
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
The Ottawa Black Bears were on a bye last weekend, but move up the rankings by one spot thanks to Toronto’s free fall. I’m still not entirely sure what to make of this team, but they’ll be on the top of my watch list this weekend as they face the top-ranked Buffalo Bandits.
8. Toronto Rock (0-2)
Power Rating: -0.0337
Current Win Total Projection: 7.67
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -6.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Last Week’s Ranking: 3rd
The margin between the bottom and top is thin in the NLL and Toronto finds itself in an already concerning winless start, due in large part to key injuries on both sides of the ball. I still believe the Rock can be a top team at full strength, but the reality is they won’t be 100% for likely a few more games. Brad Kri was activated, but Chris Corbeil hit the IR in his place. We’ll have to wait for Tom Schrieber and Latrell Harris’ status for this weekend, but a 0-4 start is very realistic with a game against Georgia and a rematch with Ottawa on deck. If Toronto can get to 2-2 or 1-3 during this stretch, then Toronto fans (and bettors) can start to believe in this team again.
9. Calgary Roughnecks (1-0)
Power Rating: -0.0532
Current Win Total Projection: 8.92
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -10.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Last Week’s Ranking: 13th
Calgary’s win over Halifax wasn’t too surprising to me. I ranked both teams low to start the season given the players they lost this offseason. Yet, their win over Halifax showed two things: 1) Cam MacLeod is going to have a very hard time replacing Calgary’s former MVP goaltender Christian Del Bianco and 2) the return of Dane Dobbie and Curtis Dickson might be enough to counteract the massive hole in net. Tyler Pace signing a new deal is also big for the Roughnecks faithful and should help an already lethal offense. Calgary isn’t going to be able to beat the very best teams in shootouts like they did in Halifax, but they likely won’t be blown out of many games either.
