10. Halifax Thunderbirds (0-1)
Power Rating: -0.0603
Current Win Total Projection: 8.03
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -11.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 10th
Last Week’s Ranking: 11th
This loss was all too predictable if you’ve followed Halifax the past couple of seasons. While their offense did its job once again, the defense continues to struggle, particularly in transition, and Warren Hill underwhelms when it matters. The absences of Luc Magnan and David Brock were apparent and not having Jake Withers due to a one-game suspension allowed Calgary to play make-it-take and complete the comeback. That said, Thomas Hoggarth had a great debut for the Thunderbirds and, much like Calgary, the Halifax offense is going to keep them in games all season long.
11. Vancouver Warriors (0-1)
Power Rating: -0.0806
Current Win Total Projection: 7.86
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -15.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 12th
The Vancouver Warriors move up a spot during their bye and have a winnable matchup with Rochester on deck. Vancouver’s season outlook has a wide range of outcomes and we’ll have to wait and see if they’ll play like a playoff contender or stay near the bottom of the standings.
12. Philadelphia Wings (0-1)
Power Rating: -0.1145
Current Win Total Projection: 7.62
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -22.0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Last Week’s Ranking: 9th
The Philadelphia Wings were on a bye last weekend, but end up dropping a few spots due to positive performances from teams below them. They also announced that Callum Crawford had been released after just one game. While the signing of Michael Sowers to the practice squad is a fun move for the Philly faithful, it doesn’t move the needle for a team whose main issue still appears to be defense for yet another year.
13. Rochester Knighthawks (1-1)
Power Rating: -0.1305
Current Win Total Projection: 8.21
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -25.1
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 9th
Last Week’s Ranking: 10th
Rochester sitting at 13th might once again surprise you, but Riley Hutchcraft’s presence in goal and an awful showing by their offense against Buffalo drops them down to the penultimate spot—for now. Despite their low ranking, they’re still projected to finish with eight or more wins right now thanks to a favorable schedule. Adam Levi also reports that Rylan Hartley is close to making his 2024-25 season debut, which will give Rochester a significant boost and should also result in a move up this list. Yet, for now, the Knighthawks sit near the bottom of the rankings and are rightly just a pick ’em against an evenly matched Vancouver team in their Week 3 matchup.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (0-2)
Power Rating: -0.2652
Current Win Total Projection: 5.76
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -51.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Last Week’s Ranking: 14th
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs are off to a disappointing 0-2 start and stay at the bottom of our rankings. Las Vegas has hung with both of its opponents for three quarters, but their issues amplify late in games and their offense is still too reliant on being opportunistic in transition. While our projections are very low on the Desert Dogs, the eye test suggests there is still plenty to be optimistic about (Jack Hannah, Adam Poitras, etc.), it just likely won’t translate to much success this season.
