5. Georgia Swarm (2-0)
Power Rating: 0.0803
Current Win Total Projection: 10.76
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +15.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 4th
Last Week’s Ranking: 6th
Georgia moves up another spot in the rankings and could very well find themselves in the top three in the new year. Their offense has been opportunistic and their defense has been very strong in settled situations. Limiting opposing transition and staying out of the penalty box will be key for their continued success, but so far the Lyle Thompson-led unit looks like a contender.
6. Colorado Mammoth (2-1)
Power Rating: 0.0694
Current Win Total Projection: 10.15
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +13.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 5th
Last Week’s Ranking: 5th
Colorado’s red-hot start took a hit in Week 3 with their loss to San Diego, but their ability to hang with the Seals was refreshing considering how poorly they played San Diego last year. They’re still a team I’d be buying in the futures market if you haven’t already, with odds still as long as +2000 on BetMGM or Bet Rivers and a favorable schedule.
7. Calgary Roughnecks (2-0)
Power Rating: 0.0072
Current Win Total Projection: 9.98
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +1.36
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 6th
Last Week’s Ranking: 9th
Calgary pulled out another one-goal win thanks to arguably the greatest late-game performance by an individual via Dane Dobbie. There are still some concerns with Calgary’s defense—starter Cam MacLeod was replaced for most of the second quarter. While his replacement, rookie Colby Bowman, played well and MacLeod played better when going back in, neither instills much confidence long-term. It’s still too early to overreact to Calgary’s 2-0 start, but it appears that they’ll remain much more competitive than we expected at the beginning of the season.
8. Vancouver Warriors (1-1)
Power Rating: -0.0351
Current Win Total Projection: 8.74
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -6.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Last Week’s Ranking: 11th
The Vancouver Warriors move up following a gritty 10-7 win over Rochester. While this team isn’t without its flaws, it was great to see goaltender Aden Walsh play well again. Vancouver currently has a low floor, but could also have one of the highest ceilings in the league as well and will be a sneaky underdog to bet throughout the season.
9. Halifax Thunderbirds (0-2)
Power Rating: -0.0865
Current Win Total Projection: 7.5
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -16.7
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Last Week’s Ranking: 10th
The Halifax Thunderbirds haven’t looked as good as in past seasons through two games, but they haven’t looked all that bad either. Ultimately, they’re a middle-of-the-pack team that should be able to hang against most opponents but can’t be completely trusted just yet. The offense production hasn’t fallen off as much as maybe expected, but they’ll need Warren Hill and their defense to put together complete games if they want to go anywhere.
