10. Ottawa Black Bears (1-1)
Power Rating: -0.0928
Current Win Total Projection: 8.41
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -17.9
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 9th
Last Week’s Ranking: 7th
It was a tale of two games for the Ottawa Black Bears. Following their big 11-5 win over Toronto in Week 1, Ottawa drops their second game to Buffalo, 18-7. While Buffalo appears to be in a tier of their own, Ottawa looked lost on offense and struggled with the continued pressure from Buffalo’s defense. Even with a new name and hometown, this team struggles with consistency on a week-by-week basis.
11. Toronto Rock (0-3)
Power Rating: -0.1184
Current Win Total Projection: 6.47
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -22.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
I’m still not convinced that Toronto is as bad as their record, but there are major concerns with this team as a result of a handful of injuries. The biggest issue is settled offense and the lack of a go-to guy. With the exception of Josh Dawick, none of the healthy Toronto forwards have impressed. Tom Schreiber is usually the straw that stirs the drink for the Rock, but without him, they’ve lacked an identity. Mark Matthews should be one of the initiators Toronto can trust, but he has been underwhelming. He is tied for first on the team in turnovers and hasn’t forced opposing defenses to respect him on the dodge as of late. They’ll need him and others to get going while they wait for Schreiber to get healthy. The transition defense has also put goalie Nick Rose in tough spots, despite some solid play by last season’s goaltender of the year. Until Toronto gets healthy, they’re a pass on the futures market and shouldn’t be trusted as a favorite or pick ’em in game-by-game situations.
12. Philadelphia Wings (1-1)
Power Rating: -0.1221
Current Win Total Projection: 8.00
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -23.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 10th
Last Week’s Ranking: 12th
The Philadelphia Wings earned a big win over Las Vegas, but, given the competition and continued struggles in transition defense, they stay at 12th in the rankings again this week. While their close loss to San Diego was encouraging, I still am not sure what to make of this team and will need to see how they perform against other tough opponents before ranking them higher.
13. Rochester Knighthawks (1-2)
Power Rating: -0.1370
Current Win Total Projection: 7.74
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -26.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 13th
Rochester actually got a good performance out of Riley Hutchcraft, but the offense has looked like a shell of its 2023-24 self. You won’t win many games scoring just seven goals and, for the second-straight week, that’s all the Knighthawks could muster. A favorable schedule could get them back in contention, but they’ll need to play a complete game before they start moving up the rankings.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (0-3)
Power Rating: -0.3098
Current Win Total Projection: 4.92
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -59.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Last Week’s Ranking: 14th
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs laid in an egg in what I thought could be a winnable game. Instead, they got trounced by the Wings, 19-10. They’ll get a chance at redemption this weekend, but even as a rare 2.5-point underdog, there isn’t much to give you confidence in this defense, even if the offense does its part. Las Vegas started the season at 14th in the rankings and could stay there for a long time.
