The new year is here and so is another week in the National Lacrosse League! Let’s take a look at this week’s NLL power rankings ahead of a light Week 6 slate.
Note: Power rankings are NOT standings and each team’s rating is based on a variety of criteria. Each team’s 2023-24 goals for and goals against totals are initially considered with their 2024-25 goals for and goals against weighed twice as much as the previous season’s. Goaltender changes and roster moves are also taken into account with adjustments made based on roster additions/substractions and empty net goals for/against. Projected win totals and final standings also account for each team’s schedule and projected win percentages are adjusted for short-rest situations.
1. Buffalo Bandits (3-0)
Power Rating: 0.3101
Current Win Total Projection: 12.6
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +64.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 1st
Last Week’s Ranking: 1st
The defending champs may not have faced the toughest of competition, but they have looked as dominant as ever in all three wins. Barring an unforeseen collapse, Buffalo will continue to be favored in every game this season and may still be playable as a rare 2.5 or 3.5-point favorite depending on the opponent. While Buffalo is still beatable, the gap between them and the next-best teams is getting wider each week.
2. Georgia Swarm (4-0)
Power Rating: 0.1421
Current Win Total Projection: 12.13
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +29.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 2nd
Last Week’s Ranking: 2nd
Georgia stays put at second overall thanks to another one-goal win. While the Swarm’s goal differential is far behind Buffalo’s, Georgia has still impressed. Three of their wins came against strong San Diego and Colorado teams and even their win over Toronto isn’t one to discredit, despite the Rock’s injuries. A major difference from last season and this year has been Georgia’s ball movement on offense. The Swarm struggled at times on offense last season, but the chemistry of the veteran-heavy unit is evident this year and they looked great against another top goaltender (Dillon Ward) last week.
3. San Diego Seals (2-2)
Power Rating: 0.1251
Current Win Total Projection: 10.24
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +26.0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 6th
Last Week’s Ranking: 5th
The San Diego Seals move back up despite the bye week. I still think San Diego can beat any team they face and are still contenders even at 0.500. Both of San Diego’s losses were to a strong Georgia team, and the Seals are much closer to the teams at the top of the standings than those at the bottom. They’ll be a favorite I’ll be looking to back on the spread against most upcoming opponents and they are one of only a few teams that I think could knock off Buffalo.
4. Colorado Mammoth (3-2)
Power Rating: 0.1103
Current Win Total Projection: 10.39
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +22.9
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 4th
Last Week’s Ranking: 6th
Despite their loss to Georgia, the Mammoth continue their steady rise in my power rankings this week. Colorado’s offense has been night and day better compared to last year and Dillon Ward has returned to form. They made Georgia work for almost every goal and while another close loss wasn’t ideal, they’re once again a legit championship contender. They’re once again still as long as +2000 on Bet Rivers, but I’d still consider a wager on their title odds at +1500 or better if you don’t already have a position on them.
