5. Saskatchewan Rush (3-1)
Power Rating: 0.0992
Current Win Total Projection: 10.6
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +20.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 3rd
Last Week’s Ranking: 3rd
The Saskatchewan Rush lost their first game of the season and it’s no surprise that it came in overtime. Saskatchewan has the pieces to remain a top team, but they’ve been doomed by slow starts and some key absences were too much to overcome last weekend. While Robert Church could still be out for a while, Austin Shanks and Adam Jay—who both missed the game against Philadelphia due to illnesses—should be back by the time they take the floor next. The Wings offense edged the Rush by being opportunistic, but Saskatchewan’s defense actually played well and Matt Hossack continues to be a menace to opposing forwards. The bigger concern is the Rush’s settled offense and power play, which have both struggled at times. If they can start to get consistent production and rely more on ball movement and less on individual effort, we should see the Rush remain at the top of the standings.
6. Albany FireWolves (1-3)
Power Rating: 0.0687
Current Win Total Projection: 8.24
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +14.3
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 10th
Last Week’s Ranking: 4th
Despite a 1-3 start, I’m still high on this Albany team. They’re two overtime losses and a second-half shutout by Halifax backup Drew Hutchison away from being 4-0. While they’re certainly not without flaws—the defense hasn’t given Doug Jamieson enough help and missed defender John Wagner last week—they’re still a contender by my estimation. The addition of veteran forward Callum Crawford should also help. Crawford is a polarizing player given his ball-dominant style, but I think he fits this unit well. He obviously has history with this franchise and coach Glenn Clark, having played for the Black Wolves in New England, and I don’t expect his presence to disrupt the chemistry that’s already present. With Travis Longboat sidelined, Crawford will give the right side another threat and take some pressure off Alex Simmons and Tye Kurtz. Expect Albany to bounce back and don’t be afraid to buy low on the FireWolves at +1200 on bet365 and ESPN Bet.
7. Philadelphia Wings (3-1)
Power Rating: 0.0549
Current Win Total Projection: 10.31
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +11.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 5th
Last Week’s Ranking: 12th
The Philadelphia Wings make the biggest jump in the power rankings this week thanks to their overtime road victory over Saskatchewan. I’m still not ready to crown Philly a contender just yet, but the offense looked good against a strong Saskatchewan defense last week. The issues of transition defense and relying too much on good goaltending are still there, but they played well enough to get the win against a good team. They have some more tough opponents coming up and we should be able to get a much better read on how good Philly can be and whether the playoffs are in their future.
8. Vancouver Warriors (2-1)
Power Rating: -0.0002
Current Win Total Projection: 9.47
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: 0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 7th
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
The Vancouver Warriors stay put at 8th again this week, but their rating gets slightly better thanks to a 14-10 win over Calgary. The Warriors are a team looking to get back to the playoffs and may have the pieces to do it. The biggest concern heading into the season was starter Aden Walsh, but he’s stopping 80% of the shots he’s facing and allowing an average of just nine goals per game. He’s gotten some help from a strong defense in front of him as well, and coach Curt Malawasky seems to be getting the most out of this roster. Don’t sleep on the Warriors!
9. Ottawa Black Bears (2-1)
Power Rating: -0.0641
Current Win Total Projection: 9.12
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -13.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Last Week’s Ranking: 9th
It’s still tough to properly evaluate Ottawa given their two wins have come against an injury-riddled Toronto team and their only loss was to the undefeated Buffalo Bandits. I expect Ottawa to be in the mix for a playoff spot, but I’m not completely sold on them as a contender quite yet. Any team with Jeff Teat is going to be competitive, but I need to see more before moving them up in the rankings. For now, I’m sticking with my prediction that they’ll be on the outside looking in come May.
