10. Calgary Roughnecks (2-1)
Power Rating: -0.0702
Current Win Total Projection: 8.79
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -14.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 9th
Last Week’s Ranking: 7th
Calgary drops a few spots after their loss to Vancouver, but their place in the rankings is more due to the uncertainty surrounding their defense. Cam MacLeod played better than in his two prior starts, but the Roughnecks are still desperately missing their MVP goaltender Christian Del Bianco. Even strong performances from the Roughnecks “Big 3” in Curtis Dickson, Dane Dobbie and Jesse King weren’t enough to get a win. I still expect Calgary to be competitive in most games this season, but the depth doesn’t appear to be there for a deep postseason run, even if they manage to sneak into the playoffs.
11. Halifax Thunderbirds (1-3)
Power Rating: -0.1148
Current Win Total Projection: 7.36
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -23.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 11th
The Halifax Thunderbirds secured their first win of the season against a solid Albany FireWolves team. The offense continues to play well and the new additions of Thomas Hoggarth and Mike Robinson are making an impact. Still, their success will largely be dependent on goaltending. Drew Hutchison’s stopped every shot he saw when coming in for Warren Hill in the third quarter, which sparked the Halifax comeback. Still, a goalie controversy is a red flag for a team whose defense hasn’t done a great job of supporting their goalie either. Even if Hutchison starts going forward, I don’t expect the Thunderbirds to drastically improve on defense and it will still take Herculean efforts by their offense to win games.
12. Toronto Rock (0-4)
Power Rating: -0.1380
Current Win Total Projection: 5.78
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -28.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Last Week’s Ranking: 10th
The Toronto Rock find themselves in an unfamiliar spot at 0-4. Their most recent two losses were just by one goal each, but it’s tough to rank this team any higher while players like Tom Schreiber, Challen Rogers, Latrell Harris and TD Ierlan are still injured. They should be able to stay competitive with most teams even considering those absences, but we’ll have to see if the sportsbooks undervalue them enough to make them bettable. With games against Buffalo, Saskatchewan, Calgary, Colorado and San Diego coming up, it’s going to take some long odds to make this current roster worth betting.
13. Rochester Knighthawks (1-4)
Power Rating: -0.1905
Current Win Total Projection: 6.75
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -39.3
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Last Week’s Ranking: 13th
Rochester has yet to have a week off and they really could use one. The offense just hasn’t performed as well as last season and that’s made their holes on defense all the more noticeable. They have also struggled to put together scoring runs without last year’s dedicated faceoff specialist Joe Post. To remedy this, they signed Mike Sisselberger, who should help them to even out any potential possession disadvantage. Still, they’ll need to get consistent production from their offense and give goaltender Riley Hutchcraft a lot more support if they want to turn their season around.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (0-4)
Power Rating: -0.3325
Current Win Total Projection: 4.51
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -68.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Last Week’s Ranking: 14th
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs are dead last once again, though they continue to look competitive during stretches. Ultimately, this team will only go as far as their defense allows them and starter Landon Kells’ recent struggles imply that it won’t be very far. The offense has some solid pieces, with Jack Hannah and Jonathan Donville being the notable bright spots, but is still overly reliant on transition chances and heroic efforts by the aforementioned Hannah and Donville. The market is already so down on Las Vegas that they may have some value has big underdogs, but it’s going to take some long odds to make them worth a wager.
