10. Rochester Knighthawks (2-4)
Power Rating: -0.0820
Current Win Total Projection: 8.06
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -17.0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 10th
Last Week’s Ranking: 13th
We finally saw the Knighthawks team that we expected entering the season. The offense looked great against a good defense and benefitted greatly from newly added faceoff specialist Mike Sisselberger’s presence at the dot. The defense deserves a lot of credit too, holding a solid Georgia offense to single digits. While I still think Rochester’s ceiling is on the lower end with Hutchcraft in net, he’s played better each week and is finally getting some help from his defense. If they can put together more performances like in Week 6, then a return to the playoffs is still possible.
11. Albany FireWolves (1-4)
Power Rating: -0.0887
Current Win Total Projection: 6.52
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -18.3
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Last Week’s Ranking: 6th
I still maintain that the FireWolves are a lot better than their 1-4 record. They’ve now lost three games in overtime, but a positive point differential still suggests they’re not far from bouncing back. Yet, their injuries on defense are concerning. Albany was already without John Wagner and Jackson Nishimura before captain Colton Watkinson went down early in their game against Las Vegas. A loss to the previously last-placed Desert Dogs where your offense scored the fewest against Las Vegas of any team that they’ve faced also raises some red flags. The offense is still too streaky and should have been able to score more than 11 goals. If Albany can get healthy on defense and limit the frequent scoring droughts, they can be considered a potential playoff contender once again.
12. Toronto Rock (0-4)
Power Rating: -0.1134
Current Win Total Projection: 5.93
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -23.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Last Week’s Ranking: 12th
Toronto can’t seem to catch a break. The team announced that captain Challen Rogers had been activated, but forward Mark Matthews had been moved to the IR. The loss of Matthews cancels out the gain of Rogers, but there’s still a chance faceoff specialist TD Ierlan could return to the lineup soon. Still, it’s hard to justify a bet on the Rock right now, even at such a long number against their rivals in Buffalo. Toronto will remain low in my power rankings until they can get near full strength.
13. Halifax Thunderbirds (1-3)
Power Rating: -0.1385
Current Win Total Projection: 7.04
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -28.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 11th
Despite a bye, Halifax drops a few spots thanks to Rochester’s offense and defense showing improvement and Toronto potentially getting a bit healthier. A lot of my expectations for Halifax hinge on goaltending. Warren Hill has struggled and it will be hard for me to rank the Thunderbirds much higher with him in net. Drew Hutchison deserves a start after his nearly two-quarter shutout against Albany, but whether he’s that much of an upgrade remains to be seen.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (1-4)
Power Rating: -0.2520
Current Win Total Projection: 5.67
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -52.0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Last Week’s Ranking: 14th
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs secured their first win in Albany thanks to three goals including an overtime winner from rookie Adam Poitras. Rookie Jackson Webster was also incredible in his NLL debut, leading the team with six points against the FireWolves. The Desert Dogs offense is going to keep them in games and if the defense can build on last week’s performance, they have a chance to move up the rankings.
Even though they still rank last in my power rankings, I discussed how the margin between Las Vegas and other teams is smaller than it may seem last week and they narrowed that gap a bit more. Although I didn’t bet Las Vegas against Albany, I wasn’t surprised to see them pull off an upset and those bold enough to bet them did so in a great buy-low spot. The Desert Dogs will continue to have value as big underdogs, but just be wary of matchups since the concerns on defense are very much still present.
