We’re nearing the halfway mark in the National Lacrosse League and the parity in the league has never been higher. According to the Bet On Lacrosse Report, underdogs are covering at a 64.44% rate! Even more significant, underdogs are winning outright more than half the time (51.11%) so far this season. The margin between the top and bottom teams in the league is thin, and my power ratings this week reflect that. Let’s take a look at my power rankings ahead of NLL Week 9.
Note: Power rankings are NOT standings and each team’s rating is based on a variety of criteria. Each team’s 2023-24 goals for and goals against totals are initially considered with their 2024-25 goals for and goals against weighed more than the previous season’s. Goaltender changes and roster moves are also taken into account with adjustments made based on roster additions/substractions and empty net goals for/against. Projected win totals and final standings also account for each team’s schedule and projected win percentages are adjusted for short-rest situations.
1. Buffalo Bandits (5-0)
Power Rating: 0.1214
Current Win Total Projection: 12.13
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +25.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 1st
Last Week’s Ranking: 1st
2. Saskatchewan Rush (4-2)
Power Rating: 0.0654
Current Win Total Projection: 10.27
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +13.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 4th
Last Week’s Ranking: 2nd
3. Toronto Rock (1-5)
Power Rating: 0.0653
Current Win Total Projection: 7.41
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +13.7
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: T-11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 9th
4. Philadelphia Wings (5-2)
Power Rating: 0.0594
Current Win Total Projection: 10.76
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +12.6
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 2nd
Last Week’s Ranking: 7th
5. Colorado Mammoth (4-3)
Power Rating: 0.0588
Current Win Total Projection: 10.03
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +12.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 5th
Last Week’s Ranking: 4th
The Buffalo Bandits claim the top spot for another week, but the defending champions are mortal. Toronto and now Philadelphia both looked competitive against the Bandits and while they’re still the top team by a significant margin, we could start to see odds to long for their upcoming opponents, setting up some good spots to bet against Buffalo.
After the Bandits, there is a significant log jam from second to ninth, with less than nine points separating the Saskatchewan Rush at No. 2 and the Georgia Swarm at No. 9 (more on them later). With the return of Tom Schreiber and TD Ierlan, the Toronto Rock shoot up to third in my rankings. As crazy as that sounds, Toronto nearly beat the top-ranked Bandits two weeks ago and bested my second-overall team in the Rush. I’d make Toronto the favorite (even if only slightly) against any other team than the two aforementioned teams now that Schreiber has returned. While the loss of Mark Matthews, who reportedly is set to miss the rest of the season, is significant, I think Schreiber’s presence outweighs the loss of Matthews. The Toronto defense also looked better and when Nick Rose is in goaltender of the year form, this team can beat anyone.
The Philadelphia Wings and Colorado Mammoth are right behind Saskatchewan and Toronto with just a little over a point separating their ratings. These four teams would all be a pick ’em against each other if I were setting the odds. The Wings offense is one of the best (and most efficient) in the NLL with defense still being a slight concern. The Mammoth are a bit more balanced, but like Philly, will be at a possession disadvantage often this season due to neither team having a top faceoff specialist.
