11. Calgary Roughnecks (3-2)
Power Rating: -0.0465
Current Win Total Projection: 9.05
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -9.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Last Week’s Ranking: 11th
12. Rochester Knighthawks (3-5)
Power Rating: -0.1505
Current Win Total Projection: 7.53
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -31.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 10th
Last Week’s Ranking: 13th
13. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-4)
Power Rating: -0.1572
Current Win Total Projection: 6.82
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -32.3
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Last Week’s Ranking: 12th
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (2-5)
Power Rating: -0.1694
Current Win Total Projection: 6.57
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -35.1
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Last Week’s Ranking: 14th
I’m not as high on Calgary as most might be. Sure, they’re currently 3-2, but their wins were against Halifax, Albany and Georgia—not exactly a murderer’s row. They’re a good team that has some super stars on offense in Curtis Dickson, Dane Dobbie, Jesse King and Tyler Pace. Yet, the defense is still thin and Cam MacLeod hasn’t done anything to convince me he’s their long-term answer at goaltender. Their offense will keep them in games, but I expect them to struggle to beat the more balanced teams in the league.
Rochester and Halifax both earned wins against each other these past two weeks, but I don’t expect much from either team. Both defenses are shaky and have subpar goaltending right now. While these offenses will keep them competitive, they also tend to disappear during stretches. Both teams should be underdogs in most of their games going forward.
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs may still be last, but they’ve narrowed the gap between themselves and the other teams in the league. The move to Justin Geddie in goal, the acquisition of Drew Belgrave and emergence of Jackson Webster have all made this team better than when it started the season. While I still have serious questions about their defense and ability to generate offense consistently outside of transition and Jack Hannah heroics, they’re an example of how any team can beat anybody in this league. They’ll continue to deserve consideration as big underdogs, with both their wins coming as 2.5-point underdogs with moneyline odds north of +225. As I mentioned when discussing San Diego, they had some good fortune go their way last week and I’m not sure their recent success is sustainable even with Geddie in net, but they probably shouldn’t have odds as high as +200 against anyone but Buffalo.
