The opening weekend of the 2024-25 National Lacrosse League season is in the books and it’s time to rank all 14 teams. I posted my preseason power rankings on X (Twitter) last week and explained the criteria I used to build my list.
Now that we’ve gotten a look at the majority of the teams, it’s time to make some adjustments to those rankings
Note: Power rankings are NOT standings and each team’s rating is based on a variety of criteria. Each team’s 2023-24 goals for and goals against totals are initially considered with their 2024-25 goals for and goals against weighed twice as much as the previous season’s. Goaltender changes and roster moves are also taken into account with adjustments made based on roster additions and substractions and empty net goals for and against. Projected win totals and final standings also account for each team’s schedule and projected win percentages are adjusted for short-rest situations.
1. San Diego Seals (1-0)
Power Rating: 0.1652
Current Win Total Projection: 11.13
Projected Final Point Differential: +31.8
Projected Finish in Standings: 1st
Preseason Ranking: 2nd
The San Diego Seals claim the top spot in my power rankings following an 18-15 win over Philadelphia. San Diego’s place at the top is less due to their win against Philly and more because of Toronto’s loss and Buffalo’s bye week. I expect starting goaltender Chris Origlieri to bounce back from a poor early start in San Diego’s season opener, but it’s good to see Mike Poulin step in and provide some stability when the Seals needed it. For an offense that lost three of their four leading scorers this offseason (Austin Staats, Curtis Dickson and Dane Dobbie), San Diego looked just fine thanks to their replacements Ben McIntosh, Rob Hellyer and Ryan Benesch, who contributed on all but two of the Seals’ 18 goals. Expect San Diego to continue to be one of the top contenders this season.
2. Buffalo Bandits (0-0)
Power Rating: 0.1578
Current Win Total Projection: 10.24
Projected Final Point Differential: +30.4
Projected Finish in Standings: 3rd
Preseason Ranking: 3rd
The defending champs are very close to claiming the top spot in the rankings and could end up doing so depending on how NLL Week 2 plays out. Their defense struggled early on last season, but drastically improved late in the regular season and continued their solid play throughout their playoff run. While their defense lost a few pieces this offseason, all eyes will be on the ageless Matt Vinc. If he can continue to play like he’s done in the postseason, Buffalo will remain the team to beat in the NLL. That said, they currently have one of the tougher schedules and bettors will need to pick their spots when betting them on the moneyline or against the spread due to sportsbooks also rating them as one of the top teams.
3. Toronto Rock (0-1)
Power Rating: 0.1303
Current Win Total Projection: 9.56
Projected Final Point Differential: +25.1
Projected Finish in Standings: 5th
Preseason Ranking: 1st
While it’s not time to hit the panic button if you’re Matt Sawyer and the Toronto Rock, their loss to Ottawa was enough to drop them from first to third in my rankings and their projected finish in the standings also took a hit with that loss. Brad Kri and Challen Rogers being out of the lineup in their season opener certainly impacted the team’s performance, but Toronto should be better prepared to deal with their absences if neither can return right away. This team is still very much a contender who can beat any team on any given night. Much like Buffalo, they’ll be favored in almost all of their games and bettors should simply continue to monitor their injuries when betting them during the regular season.
As for the futures market, the loss to Ottawa caused their playoff odds to go from -370 to -180 on bet365. Adjusting Toronto’s implied probability of making the playoffs from 78% (-370) to now 64% (-180) is a massive overreaction in my opinion. Now is a great time to bet the Rock to make the playoffs at -180 if you weren’t able to earlier or build on your position if you tailed my preseason NLL bets.
4. Saskatchewan Rush (1-0)
Power Rating: 0.1058
Current Win Total Projection: 10.47
Projected Final Point Differential: +20.4
Projected Finish in Standings: 2nd
Preseason Ranking: 5th
The Saskatchewan Rush pulled off a gutsy win over last season’s runner-ups, but if you read my NLL Week 1 betting preview, you hopefully weren’t too surprised. The Rush managed to cover and win outright as a +155 underdog and bettors should expect more upsets if the sportsbooks continue to undervalue this team. The Rush don’t have a game this weekend, but you can still buy some Saskatchewan stock with a bet on their title odds with them still as long as +2000 at BetMGM.
