10. Rochester Knighthawks (1-0)
Power Rating: -0.0690
Current Win Total Projection: 9.14
Projected Final Point Differential: -13.2
Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Preseason Ranking: 6th
Considering that Rochester was my sixth-ranked team last week and won its season opener against Las Vegas, it may seem weird that they fell to 10th this week. Yet, the simple explanation is my lofty expectations for the Knighthawks were based on the assumption that Rylan Hartley would be the team’s starter this season. Instead, Rochester placed Hartley on the IR seven hours before the beginning of the season and last year’s starter for most of the season, Riley Hutchcraft, got the nod. While Hutchcraft actually played well, making 50 saves on 72 shots, I’m not as confident in this Rochester team with him in net. Last season, Hutchcraft posted the worst adjusted goals against average among starters (13.52 GAAa via LaxMetrics) and it’s going to take a lot more than one game against an inferior opponent before I view this team as a true contender. The offseason defensive additions should help, but we’ll need to wait and see how these next few games go. That said, Rochester’s favorable schedule will help and as of right now I have them finishing at 8th in the standings.
11. Halifax Thunderbirds (0-0)
Power Rating: -0.0696
Current Win Total Projection: 8.28
Projected Final Point Differential: -13.3
Projected Finish in Standings: 11th
Preseason Ranking: 10th
I expect Halifax to take a slight step back and miss the playoffs this season. I’m not convinced the offensive pieces they brought in can replicate the production of form Thunderbirds Ryan Benesch and Austin Shanks and they didn’t do anything to improve their defense either. While a season of lower expectations could be good for a team that’s failed to meet their championship aspirations of past seasons, I’m not looking to bet Halifax too often this year, especially since it could take a while for the market to downgrade them to the level they should be. Maybe Clarke Petterson and Randy Staats will prove me wrong and be able to lead this team back to the playoffs. Yet, for now, I’ll be looking to fade the Thunderbirds.
12. Vancouver Warriors (0-1)
Power Rating: -0.0862
Current Win Total Projection: 7.67
Projected Final Point Differential: -16.5
Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Preseason Ranking: 9th
The proximity between the 7th and 12th teams is closer than it appears, so while Vancouver clocks in at 12th this week, they’re still a team that has playoff potential. Still, it appears goaltending will be Vancouver’s Achilles heel again this season. Aden Walsh has been serviceable at times, but he’s still only posted a save percentage higher than 80% just twice in his career and Vancouver’s offense is not consistent enough to overcome his shortcomings. Walsh is still very young and could turn the corner with more time, but the Warriors offense is going to need to shoulder some of the load if this team wants to make the playoffs this season.
13. Calgary Roughnecks (0-0)
Power Rating: -0.1253
Current Win Total Projection: 7.79
Projected Final Point Differential: -24
Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Preseason Ranking: 13th
Calgary was a team last year that underperformed drastically despite finishing with a positive goal differential. Unfortunately, my expectations for the Roughnecks are even lower this season with 2023 NLL MVP and longtime starting goalie Christian Del Bianco opting to sit out this season rather than play on the franchise tag. His replacement Cam MacLeod is enough of a downgrade to drop Calgary this low in the power rankings and even the return of Curtis Dickson and Dane Dobbie isn’t enough to overcome the absences of Del Bianco and Tyler Pace and losses of Zach Currier, Shane Simpson and Jeff Cornwall via trades and free agency. Both bet365 and FanDuel are still offering Calgary to miss the playoffs at -130 and I think there is tremendous value at those odds.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (0-1)
Power Rating: -0.2337
Current Win Total Projection: 6.39
Projected Final Point Differential: -44.8
Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Preseason Ranking: 14th
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs find themselves at the bottom of this list, which has been an all too familiar spot for this young franchise. The Desert Dogs’ offense actually looked like it improved and they could pull off some upsets as heavy underdogs this season. Yet, a few surprise upsets here and there will likely be all this team has to show for it at the end of the season. The defense still leaves too much to be desired and Landon Kells has yet to take that next step as a starting goalie. If the offense can continue to improve, Las Vegas may be able to close the gap between itself and other non-playoff teams, but this team still seems at least a year away from making some serious noise.
