Monitor Underdogs Against the Spread
Much like other college and professional variations of a sport, margins of victory in lacrosse games can be much greater than in professional games. As a result, college lacrosse point spreads tend to more closely resemble basketball spreads, while professional lacrosse spreads are more similar to a puck line in the NHL. Since college lacrosse betting lines are more volatile and we only have three full seasons of betting data, we’re going to focus only on the point spread data currently available from the PLL and NLL, courtesy of the Bet On Lacrosse Report.
According to the Bet On Lacrosse Report, PLL underdogs are 116-83 against the spread, covering at a rate of 58.29%. Underdogs of two points or more in particular have been profitable, covering 67.65% (23 of 34) of games.
In fact, during the 2021 PLL season, underdogs were not just profitable against the spread, but were also 22-20 straight up! So if you blindly bet PLL underdogs on the moneyline during the 2021 season, your bet would hit at a rate of 52.38%. (Not to mention, you’d more than likely be getting plus money when betting these underdogs.)
While during the full five-year sample size, underdogs are winning just 38.19% of their games straight up, it’s clear that there is parity in the PLL and that can be advantageous for bettors who know when to pick their spots.
While underdogs in the NLL have seen similar results on the moneyline since the 2021-22 season, winning just 37.53% of games, the professional box lacrosse league has seen a similar against the spread trend.
During the past three NLL seasons, underdogs against the spread are 227-193, covering at a 54.05% rate. More specifically, 1.5-point underdogs are covering at a 54.35% rate and underdogs of 2.5 points or more are covering at a 52.53% rate according to the Bet On Lacrosse Report.
Now, we’re not suggesting that you blindly play underdogs against the spread. As with any trend, there is always nuance involved. However, until sportsbooks get better at handicapping professional lacrosse games, it may be wise to consider taking teams that are getting the points on the spread if you think they already possess an edge in their matchup.
