Use Pace of Play when Betting Totals
Despite the differences between the three variations, totals generally range from 21.5 to 25.5 goals per game. However, this generalization ignores the various differences in pacing between the three different versions of the sport. A 60-minute NCAA lacrosse game moves at a slower pace than a 60-minute NLL game or 48-minute PLL game, mostly due to the professional leagues’ shorter shot clocks and shorter field dimensions.
Since there are fewer possessions in college lacrosse due to a longer shot clock and larger field, pacing tends to have more of an impact on college lacrosse totals than in the NLL or PLL and can be a great predictor for whether a total is likely to go over or under the amount set by sportsbooks.
Take the 2021 matchup between Denver and Utah for instance. According to Lacrosse Reference, Denver ranked 65th out of 69 Division I teams in 2021 and, after gaining possession, Denver posessed the ball for an average of 48.54 seconds before taking its first shot. Compare that to Robert Morris, which averaged the fastest pace at 36.33 seconds before taking its first shot in an 80-second shot clock.
Denver faced another slower paced team in Utah, which ranked 39th in pace in 2021. The result was a 9-8 game that saw 78 total possessions, resulting in a total of just 17 goals.
On the flip side, fans saw Virginia and Syracuse combine for 30 total goals in their first meeting in 2021. That season, Virginia ranked 15th in pace while Syracuse finished at 29th. Their matchup on February 27, 2021 saw the teams combine for a total of 92 possessions.
While offensive efficiency also plays a large part in the total score, looking at both teams’ pace of play along with their offense efficiency can be much more useful than looking at goals per game and can help predict whether a game is likely to go over or under the total set by oddsmakers.
