After a busy National Lacrosse League trade deadline, we’re back with this week’s power rankings. The “March to May” is in full effect and we have a good gauge of which teams are capable of playoff runs and which are destined for a disappointing finish to the season. Let’s dive into my power ratings ahead of NLL Week 16.
Note: Power rankings are NOT standings and each team’s rating is based on a variety of criteria. Each team’s 2023-24 goals for and goals against totals are initially considered with their 2024-25 goals for and goals against weighed more than the previous season’s. Goaltender changes and roster moves are also taken into account with adjustments made based on roster additions/substractions and empty net goals for/against. Projected win totals and final standings also account for each team’s schedule and projected win percentages are adjusted for short-rest situations.
1. Saskatchewan Rush (10-3)
Power Rating: 0.1554
Current Win Total Projection: 12.86
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +29.2
Last Week’s Ranking: 2nd
2. Buffalo Bandits (9-2)
Power Rating: 0.1534
Current Win Total Projection: 12.95
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +28.9
Last Week’s Ranking: 1st
3. San Diego Seals (6-6)
Power Rating: 0.1343
Current Win Total Projection: 9.52
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +25.3
Last Week’s Ranking: 3rd
4. Calgary Roughnecks (7-6)
Power Rating: 0.1014
Current Win Total Projection: 9.54
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +19.1
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
We have a new top team in the power rankings for the first time in more than a dozen weeks. The Saskatchewan Rush is my highest-rated team, although they edge Buffalo by a mere 0.002 in the ratings. So really, Saskatchewan and Buffalo are 1A and 1B. Both teams are balanced with strong goaltending and only really one weakness. For Saskatchewan, its depth of scoring. With Robert Church expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games for the birth of his son, this shouldn’t be a a major concern. Still, Church, Zach Manns, Ryan Keenan and Austin Shanks continue to lead the charge and it will take players like Brock Haley and Mike Triolo to continue to step up as they have all season.
For Buffalo, the injuries on defense are a legitimate concern without Matt Spanger for the rest of the season and Dylan Robinson still on IR. Trade deadline acquisitions and transition players Kiel Matisz and Ron John could add some depth out of the backdoor, but Buffalo will need to play much better than they did against Calgary last week. Still, this defense had issues last season before turning it around at a similar point in the season and going on an incredible championship run. I still expect a Saskatchewan-Buffalo final to be the likeliest of outcomes.
San Diego is a sneaky team right now. They’ve appeared to right the ship, but haven’t blown anyone out at all this season either. Their largest margin of victory is still only three goals, but I do think we’ve seen steady progress despite a tough stretch of games recently. I think they’re a team you want a championship future position on if you don’t already. They can beat anybody and their schedule sets them up well to snag a seed higher than No. 7 or No. 8 and potentially avoid Buffalo and Saskatchewan—teams I think they still could beat—in the first round.
Give credit to Calgary though for blowing out Buffalo in Banditland. The Roughnecks offense continues to play at a high level even with Dane Dobbie out and Nick Rose has been a difference-maker on the defensive end even if I still have some concerns about the defenders in front of him. I still wouldn’t be betting on them in the futures market at their current odds since their remaining schedule is a gauntlet, but Calgary is making a case to be considered a potential dark horse. We’ll have to see how they continue to fare and if they can separate themselves from teams like Rochester, Georgia, Vancouver and Colorado.
