6. San Diego Seals (3-4)
Power Rating: 0.0375
Current Win Total Projection: 8.88
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +7.7
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
7. Colorado Mammoth (5-3)
Power Rating: 0.0366
Current Win Total Projection: 10.31
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +7.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 4th
Last Week’s Ranking: 5th
8. Georgia Swarm (4-3)
Power Rating: 0.0272
Current Win Total Projection: 9.55
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +5.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 7th
Last Week’s Ranking: 9th
9. Ottawa Black Bears (4-3)
Power Rating: -0.0014
Current Win Total Projection: 9.74
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -0.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 6th
Last Week’s Ranking: 7th
10. Albany FireWolves (2-6)
Power Rating: -0.0157
Current Win Total Projection: 6.88
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -3.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Last Week’s Ranking: 10th
Colorado drops to seventh despite a last-second win. While the Mammoth’s fourth-quarter comebacks instill a lot of confidence in this group’s ability to make another postseason run, we’ve yet to see Colorado truly dominate any of their opponents. I still have a lot of confidence in this team, but am not convinced that they’re one of the top four teams right now. They’re very close behind San Diego, Philadelphia and Vancouver, but I need to see a complete game from them.
Ottawa’s 8-4 loss to Vancouver was a microcosm of why I was still a bit hesitant to move Ottawa higher in the power rankings last week. Zach Higgins was once again phenomenal, saving several more close-range goals, but he can only do so much. Higgins makes this defense look better than it is and the offense becomes one-dimensional when teams successfully smother Jeff Teat. Jacob Dunbar has exceeded expectations, but I don’t know if the right side is strong enough to force teams to question the strategy of aggressively sliding to or even doubling Jeff Teat. Ottawa is a team that should be active ahead of the trade deadline and if they add some impact players, then maybe I’ll change my mind. Yet, as of right now, lump them in with Georgia and Albany as average teams you still can’t fully trust.
The Albany FireWolves are better than their record and could have upset potential at the right price, which is why they stay at 10th this week despite having the most losses of any team so far this season. In fact, DubClub subscribers and I already bet FireWolves +3.5 (-110 at Caesars when it opened) with a 0.2 unit sprinkle on their moneyline odds at +270 against Buffalo this weekend. Is this bet bold? Yes. Is this price absurd for a team with a +1 goal differential? Also, yes. Game-by-game, Albany is going to be bettable if they keep getting these odds. No matchup in the NLL right now should have odds longer than +200. The margin between these 14 teams is too thin.
That all said, from a futures perspective, I’d avoid this team. Albany’s remaining schedule is too tough to overcome and they likely won’t even sniff the postseason even if they get healthy. They still have to play Buffalo, Philadelphia and San Diego twice on top of also still having to play Vancouver, Georgia and Ottawa. I don’t usually recommend cashing out of futures bets especially this early, but I would cut your losses now on Albany if you’re able to. Any amount of money you’re able to get back is worth it considering this team is closer to finishing last in the standings than making it back to the NLL Finals this year. Avoid Albany futures, and bet them in inflated underdog spots instead.
