5. San Diego Seals (3-3)
Power Rating: 0.1224
Current Win Total Projection: 10.08
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +25.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 7th
Last Week’s Ranking: 2nd
The San Diego Seals drop to fifth this week, but the margin between them, Colorado, Vancouver and Saskatchewan is razor thin. I’d make a game between either of those three teams a pick ’em and you could still make the case that San Diego is better despite their 3-3 record. Still, they’ve struggled to put it all together in most of their games. When the defense is at its best, the offense hasn’t shown up. When the offense seems to be clicking, the defense has struggled. This roster is still built to contend for a championship and the potential return of Trevor Baptiste would provide a bigger boost than you’d might think. So, right now they’re fifth in a loaded top-five, but could still find themselves hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.
6. Georgia Swarm (4-2)
Power Rating: 0.0757
Current Win Total Projection: 10.46
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +16.0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 6th
Last Week’s Ranking: 3rd
The Swarm are a tough team to guage. Their first four wins were close games, but against really good opponents. Since their 4-0 start, they’ve lost by multiple goals to two teams I still rank lower than Georgia. The’ve been too reliant on Lyle Thompson’s heroics as of late and have gotten away from the crisp ball movement that was so effective earlier in the season. I trust this defense to play better than they have recently, but the defensive lapses in transition and inconsistency on offense are all too reminiscent to last season. We’ll have to wait and see if they can right the ship, or continue to slip.
7. Philadelphia Wings (4-1)
Power Rating: 0.0303
Current Win Total Projection: 10.65
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +6.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 5th
Last Week’s Ranking: 6th
Vancouver’s big jump is the reason for Philly’s drop in the rankings by one spot, despite the Wings beating Calgary this past weekend. Philly is a good team, but has yet to be truly tested. Their games against Buffalo and then Vancouver this weekend will tell us a lot about this team and whether they can full be trusted.
8. Ottawa Black Bears (3-2)
Power Rating: -0.0576
Current Win Total Projection: 9.32
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -11.9
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 8th
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
The Black Bears secured a big win against Georgia, but I’m still not completely convinced that this team could make a deep run even if they sneak into the playoffs. The Black Bears are currently too reliant on Zach Higgins’ heroics and defenses have been able to lock onto Jeff Teat and disrupt their offense. They’ll be competitive in most of their games, but their 14-10 win over Georgia is a bit misleading considering that a handful of their goals came in transition and a couple were nearly stopped, but trickled in. Ottawa is an average team and that’s reflected in their ranking at 8th again this week.
9. Toronto Rock (0-5)
Power Rating: -0.0650
Current Win Total Projection: 5.88
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -13.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 13th
Last Week’s Ranking: 12th
Toronto fought valiantly, despite another crushing loss. They took their bitter Buffalo rivals and the best team in the NLL to the brink and that at least deserves some consideration when power rating them this week. We can’t rank them too high until they get fully healthy, but they have upset potential. While I wouldn’t bet any futures on them, I wouldn’t count them completely out of the playoff race just yet. Even at 0-5, an eight or nine-win season is possible and could earn them a spot in the postseason.
