10. Albany FireWolves (1-5)
Power Rating: -0.0789
Current Win Total Projection: 6.19
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -16.4
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 12th
Last Week’s Ranking: 11th
Even considering their 1-5 record and injuries on defense, I’m not convinced that Albany is a bottom-four team. They’re the 2023-24 Roughnecks all over again—a good team that can’t seem to close out games in the fourth quarter. Albany’s roster is largely the same as last year, but many of the teams they’ve faced this season have gotten better. They’re also dealing with major injuries on defense and a lot of the close games they managed to win last year have not gone their way and can be chalked up to a bit of bad luck. They’ll be an underdog to watch on a game-by-game basis, but I’d avoid any futures on them right now. They’ll have a tough time making the playoffs given their remaining schedule, even though they have the potential to play like a top-eight team in the NLL.
11. Calgary Roughnecks (2-2)
Power Rating: -0.1250
Current Win Total Projection: 7.83
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -26.0
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 9th
Last Week’s Ranking: 9th
Calgary has come back down to earth in recent weeks and the loss of Dane Dobbie could loom large if he misses more than just one game. However, the questions surrounding the defense are far more concerning and Cam MacLeod continues to underhwelm. Calgary caught Philly sleeping in transition a few times last week, but it was ultimately a disspointing loss against a team I already mentioned could be a bit overrated. The Roughnecks have a toguh stretch coming up and we should know how far this team can truly go very soon.
12. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-3)
Power Rating: -0.1355
Current Win Total Projection: 7.56
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -28.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 10th
Last Week’s Ranking: 13th
The Thunderbirds escaped their former home with a thrilling last-second win, which was enough for them to move up a spot. Still, I’m not convinced Halifax will go very far this season. Hutchison got the start, but did little to instill any more confidence in the goaltending situation and the defense once again didn’t help much. The Thunderbirds offense will keep them in games, but their ceiling isn’t very high if the defense can’t start to figure it out.
13. Rochester Knighthawks (2-5)
Power Rating: -0.1570
Current Win Total Projection: 7.17
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -32.7
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 10th
The Knighthawks defense showed it’s true colors, albeit against a solid Halifax offense. While Rochester’s offense continues to play well and get a possession advantage thanks to faceoff specialist Mike Sisselberger, the goaltending and defense will continue to hold this team back. If Rylan Hartley returns, then we could start to see some improvement, but until then, this team is headed for a losing season.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (1-5)
Power Rating: -0.2688
Current Win Total Projection: 5.3
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -56.2
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 14th
Last Week’s Ranking: 14th
The Las Vegas Desert Dogs stay at the bottom of the rankngs after a poor showing against the Rush. While Saskatchewan is a tough team to try and get your second-straight win against, there still hasn’t been enough positive perfromances from Las Vegas to expect much more than a bottom-five finish again this season.
