6. Vancouver Warriors (3-3)
Power Rating: 0.0468
Current Win Total Projection: 9.23
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +9.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 7th
Last Week’s Ranking: 3rd
7. Ottawa Black Bears (4-2)
Power Rating: 0.0467
Current Win Total Projection: 10.5
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +9.8
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 3rd
Last Week’s Ranking: 8th
8. San Diego Seals (3-4)
Power Rating: 0.0361
Current Win Total Projection: 8.9
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +7.7
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 9th
Last Week’s Ranking: 5th
9. Georgia Swarm (4-3)
Power Rating: 0.0258
Current Win Total Projection: 9.54
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: +5.5
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: 6th
Last Week’s Ranking: 6th
10. Albany FireWolves (2-5)
Power Rating: -0.0021
Current Win Total Projection: 7.41
Latest Projected Final Point Differential: -0.3
Latest Projected Finish in Standings: T-11th
Last Week’s Ranking: 10th
I’m not ready to admit I was too high on the Vancouver Warriors. Instead, I believe I was too low on both Philadelphia and Ottawa. Vancouver is still the team I thought they were, with a pair of close losses to good teams making them look worse than they are. They still drop a few spots in the rankings, but the margin between them and the teams ahead of them is small. This week, the difference between Ottawa and Vancouver in my ratings is 0.0001, so I obviously won’t be betting a side in their Week 9 rematch.
You could make the case that the Black Bears deserve to be even higher, but I still think Zach Higgins is doing most of the work on defense and while his elite play is certainly sustainable, this team is still vulnerable. The offense has looked great through two games and will be even better when Reilly O’Connor returns from injury. I thought they were too reliant on Jeff Teat early on, but their other weapons on offense have stepped up and this team could make some serious noise in the playoffs.
I don’t think San Diego is as bad as their record, despite a brutal loss to Las Vegas. The Desert Dogs scored a couple back-breaking shorthanded goals, pulled off a hidden ball trick to score and had Jack Hannah score another pair of highlight goals. Yet, San Diego moved the ball well, played solid defense for most of the game and were stifled by Justin Geddie in his first start in goal. The Seals sorely miss Trevor Baptiste and the possession advantage he provides, but make no mistake this is still a playoff team that shouldn’t be overlooked.
I don’t have as much confidence in Georgia after their last three losses—two of them to Rochester and Calgary teams that I still have concerns with. Their two wins over San Diego look less impressive in hindsight and they narrowly beat Colorado and a depleted Toronto. I don’t think the defense in front of Brett Dobson is as strong as I initially thought and their settled offense is too inconsistent. The margin between the Swarm and the teams ahead is still thin, but I don’t trust this team right now.
The Albany FireWolves stay put at 10th despite a crucial 13-10 win over Colorado. Don’t get too stuck on this ranking—I’d only make their odds to be second-ranked Saskatchewan +116 this week. They could be a sneaky upset candidate this season even if I think their playoff hopes are slim given their remaining schedule.
