Week 16 in the National Lacrosse League continues on Saturday with four more games and I have bets for three of them. Let’s take a look at my favorite side and totals ahead of the Saturday lineup.
Note: The odds presented below are those at the time when Hutton sends his picks out to DubClub subscribers and are subject to change. Subscribe to Hutton Jackson’s lacrosse picks on DubClub so you never miss out on the best odds for these picks. As soon as Hutton places a bet, you’ll immediately get a notification with both the pick and brief analysis. Picks are sent out at least 20 minutes in advance of articles published on Bet On Lacrosse.
Colorado Mammoth at Philadelphia Wings
 Colorado Moneyline/Spread | -135 / -1.5 |
 Philadelphia Moneyline/Spread | +105 / +1.5 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN+ |
Odds via bet365
Both Colorado and Philadelphia have had some personnel changes affect their rosters in the past couple of weeks. Philly shipped forward Holden Cattoni to Las Vegas and brought in defenders Mitch De Snoo and Chris Corbeil ahead of the trade deadline. The Mammoth didn’t make any deadline moves, but placed Zed Williams on the season-ending IR and Eli McLaughlin on the holdout list.
The Wings have played better defensively in recent weeks and the additions of De Snoo and Corbeil seemed to help in their first game with the team, despite another loss to Albany. Philly’s last four games have stayed under 25 goals and this has just as much to do with their struggling offense as it does their seemingly improved defense.
Meanwhile, Colorado has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but has stayed under this total in seven of 12 games this season, including five of their last six games. Without Williams and McLaughlin, I don’t expect the Mammoth to put up a ton of points against Philly. Colorado is also tied for the fewest fast break goals scored this season, which is an area that many teams have exploited this Philly defense. As a result, I don’t expect as many transition goals in this game, which should lead to a slower pace.
Bet this game to stay Under 24.5 at -105 on bet365 or BetMGM.
Pick: Under 24.5
Rochester Knighthawks at Ottawa Black Bears
 Rochester Moneyline/Spread | -110 / +1.5 |
 Ottawa Moneyline/Spread | -115 / -1.5 |
| Total | 21.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN+ |
Odds via ESPN Bet
This is my favorite spot of the weekend. The Knighthawks are one of the hottest teams in the NLL, winners of three straight with the playoffs in their sights. Their defense has been playing much better and the offense looks as prolific as it did last season. They face an Ottawa team that got worse at the deadline.
The Black Bears traded two of their transition threats and will be without defenders Kevin Brownell and Callum Jones this weekend. They’ve also been far too reliant on excellent goalie play from Zach Higgins. Higgins and Co. will have their work cut out for them against an offense that currently ranks second in offensive efficiency and has averaged 16.67 goals per game in their last three games. Even with Reilly O’Connor back in the lineup, the Ottawa offense has floundered and didn’t address their offensive needs at the deadline.
I expect Rochester to win this game outright and recommend betting Knighthawks moneyline at -110 on ESPN Bet or FanDuel and also a half unit on Knighthawks -1.5 at +125 on BetRivers.
Picks: Rochester Knigthawks ML, Rochester Knighthawks -1.5 (0.5 unit)
Buffalo Bandits at Calgary Roughnecks
 Buffalo Moneyline/Spread | -185 / -1.5 |
 Calgary Moneyline/Spread | +150 / +1.5 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+/TSN |
Odds via BetMGM
The Buffalo Bandits play the Calgary Roughnecks for the second straight week and we’re following the profitable back-to-back total trend again. Of the 12 most recent consecutive matchups, all but two have had the total in the second game end up lower than in the first. The average total in the second game across those instances is also an average of 3.83 goals lower.
While these teams combined for 28 goals last week, I don’t expect Buffalo to give up 17 goals again. Calgary’s offense has been the most efficient in the NLL this season, but the Buffalo defense added transition players Kiel Matisz and Ron John at the deadline which should help this defense at least a little. Additionally, Matt Vinc rarely has poor performances in back-to-back games. The veteran netminder has never had consecutive games with a save percentage lower than 70% as a member of the Bandits and the last time that happened was 2012! This Bandits defense still ranks sixth in defensive efficiency and should be better prepared for this Calgary offense.
Let’s give credit to Calgary’s defense as well. Nick Rose has played well through two games with the Roughnecks, holding both opponents to just 11 goals each. While I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bandits have a little more success this week, I don’t think it will be enough to push this total over. Bet this rematch to stay Under 25.5 goals at -110 on BetMGM or -113 on BetRivers.
Pick: Under 25.5
Subscribe to Hutton Jackson’s lacrosse picks on DubClub so you never miss out on the best odds for these picks. As soon as Hutton places a bet, you’ll immediately get a notification with both the pick and brief analysis!
