The 2025 NCAA men’s lacrosse season is now past its mid-point and teams are competing for critical conference wins.
But what does it take to be a college lacrosse championship contender?
I look at final four teams from the past five seasons, examine which current top 10 teams meet the established “championship” criteria and give title futures to bet now!
Use code “Lax10” to get 10% off your Streaker Sports order!
What does it take to be a National Championship Contender?
Before I discuss which teams to bet, wait to bet or pass on in regards to 2025 NCAA men’s lacrosse national championship odds, let’s look back at some recent Final Four teams and see what they have in common by using data from Lacrosse Reference.
To calculate a team’s net efficiency, we simply take their adjusted offensive efficiency (goals scored per total offensive possessions adjusted based on opponents) and subtract their adjusted defensive efficiency (goals allowed per total defensive possessions adjusted based on opponents).
Team | Adj. Off. Efficiency | Adj. Def. Efficiency | Net Efficiency | Adj. Faceoff % |
2024 Notre Dame (Winner) | 42.5% (1st) | 22.8% (1st) | +19.70% | 63.8% (4th) |
2024 Maryland (Runner-Up) | 31.8% (28th) | 24.4% (4th) | +7.40% | 66.6% (1st) |
2024 Virginia | 35.3% (9th) | 26.0% (T-13th) | +9.30% | 57.1% (12th) |
2024 Denver | 33.1% (20th) | 24.9% (8th) | +8.20% | 61.3% (6th) |
2023 Notre Dame (Winner) | 40.1% (2nd) | 20.6% (1st) | +19.50% | 52.1% (32nd) |
2023 Duke (Runner-Up) | 37.5% (5th) | 25.8% (8th) | +11.70% | 62.3% (4th) |
2023 Penn State | 35.3% (11th) | 24.6% (4th) | +10.70% | 49.5% (40th) |
2023 Virginia | 41.9% (1st) | 26.6% (13th) | +15.30% | 57.4% (13th) |
2022 Maryland (Winner) | 41.9% (1st) | 21.3% (1st) | +20.60% | 67.3% (1st) |
2022 Cornell (Runner-Up) | 34.9% (11th) | 26.3% (13th) | +8.60% | 50.2% (36th) |
2022 Princeton | 37.6% (4th) | 25.7% (9th) | +11.90% | 52.8% (27th) |
2022 Rutgers | 36.1% (8th) | 25% (7th) | +11.10% | 48.2% (41st) |
2021 Virginia (Winner) | 36.7% (5th) | 28.1% (20th) | +8.60% | 65.1% (7th) |
2021 Maryland (Runner-Up) | 40.7% (2nd) | 24.8% (6th) | +15.90% | 51.9% (27th) |
2021 Duke | 36.6% (7th) | 24.6% (5th) | +12.00% | 62.2% (11th) |
2021 North Carolina | 41.3% (1st) | 27.2% (15th) | +14.10% | 58.7% (14th) |
2019 Virginia (Winner) | 36.0% (7th) | 27.3% (16th) | +8.70% | 59.8% (16th) |
2019 Yale (Runner-Up) | 35.5% (9th) | 29.8% (33rd) | +5.70% | 78.3% (1st) |
2019 Penn State | 43.4% (1st) | 28% (22nd) | +15.40% | 60.8% (12th) |
2019 Duke | 34.0% (T-12th) | 25.3% (3rd) | +8.70% | 53.8% (28th) |
Since 2019—when the shot clock was first introduced in NCAA men’s lacrosse—all four champions have finished the season with both an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking in the Top 20. In fact, the last three champions (Notre Dame ’24 and ’23, Maryland ’22) all finished with an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking first or second.
Additionally, three of the five runner-ups have also boasted an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking in the Top 20. 2019 runner-up Yale and 2024 runner-up Maryland are the two teams that did not meet this criteria. What the Bulldogs and Terps both had in common was a faceoff unit that ranked first in adjusted faceoff percentage.
Additionally, all but one Final Four team during those five seasons has ranked in the Top 10 in at least one efficiency category, with 2022 Cornell being the only exception thanks to an 11th-ranked offense and 13th-ranked defense—still very impressive marks. If you want to make the Final Four, you have to be extremely efficient on at least one side of the ball.
During that five-year span, every Final Four team but two had a net adjusted efficiency higher than +8.5%. The lone teams below were the aforementioned 2019 Yale and 2024 Maryland teams, who overcame their +5.7% and +7.4% net adjusted efficiencies thanks to faceoff percentages above 66% (TD Ierlan, 78.3% and Luke Wierman, 66.6%).
While a high adjusted faceoff percentage has helped teams like these overcome large inefficiencies on either offense or defense en route to the Final Four, it is not a great predictor of a Final Four run, particularly given the increased parity at the faceoff.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the current Top 20 teams according to the Inside Lacrosse media poll and their championship potential in the next section.
[…] historically efficient as this Army defense has been, their ability to disrupt opposing offenses and cause turnovers often leads to more offense for […]