We’re just three weeks into the 2025 Premier Lacrosse League season, but the PLL MVP race is already starting to take shape. Michael Sowers has emerged as the clear favorite, currently as low as -130, but there are a couple of other players that I think are also worth a bet. Let’s dive into the MVP race…
Note: The odds presented below are those at the time when Hutton sends his picks out on the Action App and are subject to change. Picks are sent out at least 20 minutes in advance of articles published on Bet On Lacrosse.
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Hopefully, you joined me in betting Michael Sowers to win MVP at +1500 ahead of Week 2 as he has emerged as the clear favorite to win MVP. This Waterdogs offense is finally clicking after dealing with numerous scoring droughts last season. The noticeable improvement is Sowers’ command on the offense in short shot clock situations and his teammates are converting on 51.9% of his passes compared to just 28.8% last season. Rookie Jake Taylor and a healthy Thomas McConvey’s presence off-ball have added another dimension to this offense and Sowers’ stats are reaping the rewards.
His 14 assists lead the league, and the next closest three players have just 15 assists combined. He’s the clear favorite and the current MVP odds reflect it. However, I don’t think we’ve approached 2024 Jeff Teat territory where he’s already ran away with the award just yet. (Of course, I though Teat’s odds would rise back above +200 at some point after Week 1 last season and they never did). That means there is some value on some other candidates.
We’ll start by discussing a few players that I already bet.
I won’t be adding to my position on Jeff Teat, but he’s still worth a smaller bet if you haven’t bet him already. Jeff Teat may only have eight points so far and the emergence of Connor Shellenberger could hurt his case, but +2000 is still worth at least a small bet considering how dominant we know Teat can be. I’d keep a bet on him very small, but all it takes is a 5+ point performance from Teat this weekend and he’s right back in the MVP conversation.
Asher Nolting is a player I bet before the season as well, cashed out and re-bet at better odds (+2000) ahead of Week 3, but I’d actually wait to bet him. I think he still has MVP potential, but he only has seven points through three games and Marcus Holman’s MVP-like game-winner in Game 2 killed a bit of the Nolting steam. It’s not worth betting Nolting right now with Sowers looking so dominant.
As for some MVP candidates I would bet now, we’ll start with another player near Sowers on the odds board.
TJ Malone is a player we already bet two different ways ahead of the season, taking him to go over 34.5 regular season points (he’s on pace for 43.3) and to finish with the most regular season points. When the odds initially reopened on FanDuel, Sowers was -175 and Malone was the next closest at +1200. Some savvy bettors took the opportunity to bet Malone and the odds have since moved to +800 on FanDuel. They’re currently +1000 on bet365, but regardless of whether you bet him at bet365 or FanDuel, now is the time to strike.
Malone is second in the league in points and fifth in the league in touches. Maryland Whipsnakes head coach has repeatedly discussed getting Malone even more touches, and it’s clear that the Whips plan to live or die by his play. His consistency also makes him such a great candidate to win the award.
Furthermore, in my opinion, Malone has the best opportunity to be MVP, considering his supporting cast and potential narrative if Maryland overcomes that early 0-2 start. Sure, he has former MVPs Rob Pannell and Matt Rambo on his attack line, but both are underperforming and their age is starting to show. Meanwhile, Sowers has Kieran McArdle, who continues to play at a high level, Teat has Shellenberger and Nolting has Holman. With a doubleheader in Week 4 on deck, the Maryland attackman has two games to cement himself as a top favorite, so now is the best time to bet TJ Malone to win MVP at +1000.
Now, let’s move to the player being mispriced in the MVP market on bet365.
If you didn’t bet Pat Kavanagh to win MVP at +10000 (yes, 100-1) on FanDuel before the season when I gave it out, today is your lucky day. Betting Kavanagh to start the season was just a dart throw, but he has a legitimate case through three weeks. FanDuel has Kavanagh at +1600 (which dropped from +2500 on Saturday night), but bet365 gave him the longest odds at +20000 when they reopened. Clearly an oversight on their part, but they are still offering him at +15000, and I would pounce on that price right away.
Pat Kavanagh may only have seven points, but he is currently seventh in assist opportunities, has the highest shots on goal percenatage of players with 20+ shots at 87.5% and leads the league in touches with 130 through three games. He is a key piece in this Denver Outlaws offense and the odds don’t reflect his value, even if I still consider him a bit of a longshot to win the award. Take a small flyer on the Denver attackman and bet Pat Kavanagh to win MVP at +15000 on bet365.
Picks: TJ Malone to win MVP, Pat Kavanagh to win MVP
